The Coronavirus Gamble
Read this editorial on the Coronavirus by The New York Times, then decide if Bernie Sanders’ idea of universal health care, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Green New Deal, are crazy or smart. We need universal coverage to respond to pandemics, so even if the Coronavirus is much less dangerous than it might be (and there is no reason to believe that it is), it’s just one of many potentially deadly outbreaks that climate change will fling in our direction.
From the editorial:
“If the next few weeks or months bring calm — and scientists increasingly worry that they will not — the world would do well to remember this time what it seems to have forgotten again and again. Another pathogen will emerge soon enough, and another after that. Eventually, one of them will be far worse than all its predecessors. If we are very unlucky, it could be worse than anything in living memory.
For example, what if a virus with a high fatality rate also has a transmission rate similar to the measles, which is 90 percent? The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) estimates the transmission rate of the flu is only between 3 percent and 11 percent, and yet it has killed between 12,000 and 61,000 people each year since 2010. We aren’t ready to respond to a virus that is both virulent and highly contagious. (The flu season runs through April; be like all the cool kids and get immunized.)
The Trump administration should be gearing up its response to the outbreak, but so far it is downplaying the potential impacts, and its supplemental funding request was anemic. Trump requested $2.5 billion to combat the Coronavirus ($1.5 billion of which was unwisely diverted from other disease control initiatives), with $1 billion slotted for vaccine development, but experts say $15 billion overall is needed, with at least $3 billion for vaccines.
Instead of bringing a seasoned epidemiologist into the White House to coordinate the government’s response, Trump appointed Vice President Pence to lead the effort. This indicates Trump sees the Coronavirus as a political problem, and he can rely on Pence, whose reelection hinges on Trump’s reelection, not to say anything that might embarrass the administration. And if things really head south, Trump can shift the blame onto Pence who, after all, was “in charge,” and find another vice president.
Pence’s last foray into public health came when he was a one-term governor of Indiana. During his time as governor, there was a severe HIV transmission outbreak among users of intravenous (IV) drugs. A proven solution was available: open needle exchange facilities that did not also expose users to arrest. But Pence disapproved of that option on moral grounds. He “prayed about it” for several weeks, during which time hundreds of people were infected. He finally relented and allowed the needle exchange program, which gradually brought the outbreak under control.
If the Coronavirus is spreading rapidly in the U.S., the Trump administration will eventually have to respond (here’s hoping, anyway). The CDC has good information available for the public, despite the Trump administration’s blasé attitude. But even if the federal government, hampered by Trump’s reelection ambitions, is slow to act, state and local health departments will act. Visit their websites frequently and follow their advice. They will also provide you with a sense of the local spread of the virus.
The Trump administration is gambling the outbreak won’t be too severe, because a severe outbreak will negatively affect the economy (the stock market has already taken a spectacular tumble), and a bad economy will negatively affect Trump’s reelection hopes. Of course, if he was smart, he would leap at the chance to prove himself indispensable by declaring the fight against the Coronavirus outbreak to be the Moral Equivalent Of War that he, and only he, can win (that’s what authoritarians usually do). The problem is that reaction runs counter to his instincts to dismantle the government while doing very little work. Acknowledging a crisis might require him to build-up a few government agencies and, even worse, to stay at the White House on the weekends, which cuts into his golfing time, which cuts into how much money his resort can make from the federal government, which cuts into Trump’s personal profits. Such a conundrum!
So the federal government is fumbling its preparedness and response efforts, leaving the rest of us to take various gambles ourselves. Do we prepare? How and how much? If you’re inclined to minimize your risks, there are are several actions you can take.
First, if you’re feeling sick, stay home from work (self isolate). And don’t be too skeptical if your kids say they’re sick, just keep them home from school. Staying home if you’re ill is one critical way of disrupting virus transmission, so just stay home!
If you are feeling ill, don’t show up unannounced at your doctor’s office or the local emergency room (unless you have a breathing or other emergency). Crowded waiting rooms are great places to spread the virus. Call and ask what they recommend you do for testing and/or isolating. If you do test positive, your local health department will provide you with guidance.
If your kids are sick, one parent will have to stay at home, and for a two-income reliant family (as most are), that makes life difficult. It might also jeopardize jobs. Parents may need to alternate days or weeks off to care for kids and keep their jobs. Check with your local school district for any guidance they may have issued. Where I live, the school district has very pointed guidance for parents, “if your children are sick, keep them at home.” Check with your employer to find out what are his or her plans and expectations. The potential loss of income if a parent stays home is a strain on the family, but getting the virus will have the same — and potentially much worse — effects.
Think about who is going to care for you if you become ill. Not everyone needs to go to the hospital, but that doesn’t mean you or your spouse won’t need care. Your spouse can care for you — unless he or she will lose their job by being away from work for an extended period of time. What if both you and your spouse are sick? Perhaps you can rely on extended family for help, but there are no easy answers.
Second, stock up on food and other supplies (at least thirty days worth), including prescription medicines, and make sure you have a thermometer, facial issues, and ibuprofen and/or acetaminophen on hand. Use alcohol to clean surfaces and devices (microwaves, phones, and tablets). Don’t forget diapers, feminine supplies, and pet food. When you go out, take along an alcohol-based hand sanitizer (at least 60 percent alcohol) and use it often, so make sure you have plenty of those little bottles on hand (yes, a pun).
The CDC has a general emergency supplies list, and regardless of the severity of the Coronavirus, you should put together an emergency kit. As the effects of climate change grow, new diseases will emerge, and the severity and frequency of storms will increase. Being prepared is a good idea.
Can pets become infected? It’s not clear. One dog in Hong Kong tested “a weak positive,” but health authorities are not yet convinced, so they’ve isolated the dog to monitor its health. “‘The U.S. CDC suggests pet owners restrict contact, including petting, snuggling, being kissed or licked, and sharing food,’ with pets and other animals if the owner is infected with the coronavirus. And the WHO said ‘it is always a good idea to wash your hands with soap and water after contact with pets. This protects you against various common bacteria such as E. coli and salmonella that can pass between pets and humans.’”
Third, avoid crowds if possible. It’s a tough call if your kids are in the school play (unless someone in the family is sick, then everyone stays home), but certainly avoid the mall and restaurants until epidemiologists get a better idea of how widespread the Coronavirus is in the U.S. Early indications from Seattle are that it’s widespread and largely undetected. This will be hard on the economy; most local businesses have razor-thin margins, and a few bad sales weeks can be devastating to their bottom lines and survival, so shopping local seems like a good idea. On the other hand, chain stores employ large numbers of people, so if sales decline staff will receive fewer hours and may be laid off. Again, there is no good or right answer to this problem, beyond saying that enabling the spread of the virus will also be very bad for small businesses and employment.
Fourth, have a plan to make sure your friends, neighbors, and family are okay, especially those who live alone, the elderly, and anyone with an underlying medical condition that would make a Coronavirus infection serious. Since visiting isn’t a good idea, call or email them. If someone is in dire need of help, call an ambulance. Emergency medical personnel will respond with the appropriate level of personal protection and transport your friend to a hospital in accordance with an emergency response medical plan (hospitals and state/county/local health departments have them).
If repeated attempts to contact your friend fail (including, as a last resort, a door-knocking home visit), or they live too far away, call the police. They can stop by and do a “well-person” check, although if your friend was too sick to answer the door when you stopped by, they probably won’t answer if the police come knocking. I’m not sure if the police would attempt a forced entry…Again, no good solution. But have a plan (perhaps rotating among several people) for checking on others.
The Coronavirus presents us with a lot of unknown unknowns, as well as known unknowns, and perhaps some unknowable unknowns, to paraphrase the scrambled egg musings of a former U.S. Secretary of Defense. And remember, Trump was the CEO of several casinos, the vacation spot of choice for risk takers and inveterate gamblers. Under Trump’s leadership, all of the casinos went bankrupt.
